The Politics of Repression Under Authoritarian Rule by Dag Tanneberg

Author:Dag Tanneberg
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783030354770
Publisher: Springer International Publishing

H2

Marginal increases in violence increase the probability of success for resistance campaigns.

H3

Restrictions and violence interactively lower the chances of success for resistance campaigns.

Three testable hypotheses follow from the discussion. They refer to the unconditional marginal effects of violence and restrictions on campaign success, as well as their interaction. First, restrictions are inconsequential unless violence reinforces them. Therefore, the marginal effect of restrictions on the likelihood of successful resistance campaigns should be negligible (H1). Second, unmoderated violence tends to backfire, boosting participation in campaigns and lending strength to their cause. Consequently, marginal increases in violence should increase the probability of campaign success (H2). Finally, restrictions and violence complement each other. They compensate for each other’s weaknesses and thereby turn each other into effective anti-campaign policies. Therefore, restrictions and violence interactively lower the chances of successful resistance to authoritarian rule (H3).

Let us briefly summarize the argument before the discussion moves into matters of research design and data. If authoritarian regimes want to forestall campaign success, they have to implement restrictions and violence jointly. Both types of political repression target social networks which constitute the backbones of mobilization against authoritarian rule. Social networks establish individual interdependencies through which campaigns can communicate their goals and recruit participants. Accordingly, political repression must prevent social networks from serving as fulcrums of collective action. Restrictions incapacitate collective action by curtailing coordination goods, while violence punishes open opposition and spreads fear. However, complementarity is key for effective political repression: Restrictions and violence must compensate for their respective weaknesses in order to become reliable anti-campaign policies. Only when implemented jointly do they stand a chance to prevent campaign success.

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